这是对特朗普执政成败的一次全民公投

2016年11月8日之后,美国社会无论左派右派都似乎没有从大选的记忆中真正走出来,而美国政治从那以后就被刻上了现任总统特朗普极具特色的标签。两年后的今天,美国迎来了又一次的全国性选举,只不过特朗普不在选票上,而是共和、民主两党在地方、联邦和各州重划新的政治版图。但是,这次中期选举的结果,比历史上以往任何一次中选都显得很重要。那些当年投票给特朗普的人,会不会把票投给共和党?

特朗普两年执政之后,美国民众需要判断美国有没有“再次伟大”(图源:VCG)
选举前,美国国家公共广播电台(NPR)、美国公共广播电台(PBS NewsHour)以及马里斯特大学(Marist)进行的民调显示,2/3的受访者表示特朗普将是他们中期选举的一个因素;23%的人说他将是次要因素;44%的人说他将是一个主要因素。在2014年中期选举前的一项类似调查发现,当时只有47%的人把时任美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)作为一个投票因素。由此看来,本次的中期选举实际上就是对特朗普的一次民意公投。
无论左派还是右派的选民,似乎都正带着满腔的愤怒走向投票的一天。《时代周刊》在11月3日报道称,中期选举之前,有超过3,000万美国人提前投票,超过了2014年的全国提前投票总数,本届选举的投票率也可能较以往增高不少。左派选民希望特朗普被国会牵制甚至被弹劾,而右派选择则希望极力保护特朗普推行的政策,可以说对特朗普的“爱”和“恨”的两极是很多人选择去投票的动机。
根据最新的民调,民主党在这次中期选举可能获得众议院的多数席位。特朗普11月2日西弗吉尼亚州的集会上对此表示“这有可能发生”,但是马上轻描淡写的表示“不用担心,我会想出应对的方法”。可是,特朗普的担忧无法掩饰。

虽然中期选举并非总统选举,但是特朗普仍旧在舞台最中央 (图源:VCG)
从无故指责中国“操纵”中期选举,到选举前两周表示“参加选举的人毕竟不是我”,再到突然承诺给中产阶级减税、消除美国政府赤字、威胁废除美国出生公民权、增派15,000人的边境部队来“击退”1,500公里外的移民“大篷车”,渲染威胁和夸大承诺是特朗普惯用的选前宣传手段。
回顾特朗普任期的前两年,除了2017年推动税改法案的通过,成功提名两位最高法院大法官之外,给人留下深刻印象的则是在国际社会上不断的“退群”,发起对华贸易战以及一系列极端保守的移民政策。不仅在内外政策上受争议巨大,特朗普个人以及白宫幕僚也一直丑闻缠身。围绕“通俄门”和艳星封口费的一系列调查还在继续,白宫人事变动不断,媒体已经把美国政治的分裂现状都归结在特朗普执政下的白宫。
一旦共和党丢掉两院中的一个,民主党已经做好了对抗特朗普的一系列计划。众议院民主党人极有可能重启国会“通俄门”调查,并且对特朗普家族全球范围内的商业利益进行排查,还可能就他从未公开的纳税清单再度施压,“是否启动弹劾程序”也成为民主党内、美国社会的一大讨论话题。
不仅如此,特朗普在内政外交上的所有政策在民主党占国会多数席位的情况下都会难以推进, 反之民主党人在医保、女权、教育和移民问题上与白宫南辕北辙的提案将有了推进的可能,这对特朗普的施政将是巨大挑战。
当然,如果共和党保住国会两院,那么这足以说明民众对特朗普和他影响下的共和党的执政成果是大体上支持的。这种结果可能彻底击垮民主党的“反抗”,也对2020年的美国大选有重要的映射作用。
在选前的最后一个周末,前总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)和现特朗普分别在美国举行集会,但传递的都是一个信号:美国正在一个政治的十字路口,再不投票就晚了。当然,一边认为特朗普带来毁灭,一边则认为民主党是巨大的“灾难”。
2016年的大选,特朗普在选举团制度下获得胜利,实际上他比对手的选票落后了200万有余。在国会两院以及州长的全国性选举中,或许可窥见美国选民对特朗普税改、移民及经济政策的真正看法,以及美国社会的真实面貌。但无论结果如何,每次选举都会凸显美国两党政治的极化斗争的进一步恶化,此次中期选举也不例外。 …转自多维新闻网

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