双十一购物狂欢背后隐患重重 贸易战影响已显现

2018年的天猫双十一大促正式收官，当日成交额最终定格在2,135亿元人民币（1人民币约合0.14美元），这是双十一购物节开创以来首次突破2,000亿人民币大关。
尽管销售额再度刷新纪录，但在光鲜亮丽的数字背后，依然有许多耐人寻味的故事。事实上，在中国国内经济与全球贸易环境的双重影响下，如今的双十一与往年相比已经发生了巨大的变化，甚至一些隐患正逐渐显现。

天猫双十一大促已成为中国消费者一年一度的购物狂欢节（图源：VCG）
十年双十一 大玩家已重新洗牌
双十一从十年前，仅有小部分电商品牌参加的促销活动，发展到如今，覆盖中国主要电商平台，甚至延伸至海外电商平台的全网促销活动。其迅速发展所产生的影响力以及市场规模，已远远超过了美国一年一度的“黑色星期五”促销活动。而在市场快速变化的背后，是品牌之间无情的厮杀。
纵观双十一历年各大品类销售前十名排行，原本新兴崛起的电商品牌诸如茵曼、韩都衣舍、阿卡、裂帛等，到了2017年双十一，仅剩韩都衣舍一家硕果仅存。双十一活动的品牌方经历多年洗牌之后，传统品牌再一次霸占了各大品类的销售前十名。
有业内人士向记者透露，现在很多厂商都是亏钱在做双十一促销，即使是能维持一定的利润率的行业，由于各大电商平台回款会有一定的延后，有些平台甚至需要数月才能完成回款，也导致了只有资金流动性相对较好的大牌才“玩得起”这样的大促。这也就是如今销售格局重新洗牌的原因，再这样的背景下，新型的电商品牌将很难挑战传统大牌的地位。
跨境电商繁荣背后 代购行业经历寒冬
根据市场咨询机构西窗（Westwin）与尼尔森（Nielsen）的研究报告，2017年中国跨境电商市场扩大34%至1.5万亿元人民币。2017年天猫双十一开始一小时，即有62家品牌实现销售过亿，其中24家为国际品牌。2017年天猫双十一当天，超过1,000万名消费者通过天猫国际购买跨境商品。
然而跨境电商繁荣更多受益的是跨国品牌商以及跨境电商平台，而对于从事跨境代购业务的私人买家或小型贸易公司而言，他们的日子并不好过。
就在2018年双十一大促前夕，一则新闻在中国的社交媒体上被广泛传播，淘宝店主游燕从事跨境代购业务3年半，遭指控逃税300万元人民币，被判有期徒刑10年，处罚金550万元。
游燕的丈夫近日在她的淘宝店铺里贴出了一封道歉信，信中披露，该案已作出最终判决，游燕正在广州女子监狱服刑。该信引起了中国网民的热议，虽然有人认为游燕逃税遭惩罚合情合理，但更多人则是将她与范冰冰做对比，认为同样是逃税，为何两者结果天差地别。很快游燕的店铺被淘宝官方下架。
接踵而至的“坏消息”让跨境代购行业从业者们愈发焦虑。从近期中国各大机场加大海关检查力度，到此次的游燕代购案，再到2019年1月1日即将正式实施的《中华人民共和国电子商务法》，代购们感到行业的寒冬或很快将要到来。
中美贸易战阴影已波及双十一
高成交量对于企业生产与销售造成的压力不言而喻，也造成了双十一期间，物流配送的相对减缓。积累了十年经验的电商平台与商家已经在进销存和物流方面做了相当大程度的优化以抵御双十一期间的销售与配送压力，然而今年又有一个新的因素将影响货物及时被送到消费者的手中，那就是中美贸易战。
持续数月的中美贸易战的影响正逐渐显现，尤其在制造业领域。由于原材料进口关税上升，导致了中国制造业部分领域的成本出现了上升。一家专业制造并销售原木家具的天猫商家告诉记者，该品牌出品的家具主要使用美国白橡木制作，中美贸易战爆发后，原产自美国的白橡木被加征关税，导致其生产所需的原材料进口受阻。在这样的背景下，企业生产效率出现了下降，商品交付时间延后，而成本的增加也使得其商品在双十一大促期间无法给出更有竞争力的价格，销量难获提振。
以这家家具商为代表的中国制造业企业并不在少数，越来越多的企业，包括电商企业，已经或多或少地受到了中美贸易战的影响，而双十一大促在一定程度上对这些企业起到了清理存量的作用，在促销之后，贸易战所导致的生产压力或将进一步体现。 …转自多维新闻网

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