中美贸易战已精准击中特朗普票仓

当地时间11月8日,结束中期选举后的美国各地又重新开始了与中美贸易战相关的政治活动,明尼苏达等州的民主党人士和农业活动家又开始了质疑特朗普,呼吁结束贸易战的游说活动。当美国农业界和民主党喊出“比起援助,更期待贸易”的口号时,特朗普中部票仓地区的农业人口就难免会心动。
和2016年大选一样,特朗普(Donald Trump)阵营还是继续控制了以中部地区为主的传统票仓,2016年总统大选期间的摇摆州也成了民主党阵营在众院反击的突破口。但对分析人士来说,相对于美国政治的传统摇摆,本次中期选举也留下了当前重大国际局势,即中美贸易战带来的直接印记。
在中期选举开始前,外界一直认为受中美贸易战影响的美国中部十个农业州将成为特朗普票仓的松动点。选后的结果虽然与外界预期存在很大差异:十个农业州中,只有三个州出现了参院、众院和州长的席次变化,考虑到这三地在特朗普政治版图上的核心位置,加之美国其他受贸易战直接影响的区域也发生了政治版图的变更。在中美贸易战仍在继续之际,这一信息就显得相当重要。

美国优先的口号颇能吸引美国中部的普通百姓和农业资本家,但后者很快就要因经济利益受损而采取行动了
特朗普阵营在众院435个议席的争夺中无疑占了下风,但共和党自2016年大选结束后确立的政治版图仍没有发生根本性的变化。
虽然不少分析人士此前认为驴象两党在联邦、州和地方层面的大部分政治格局会发生巨变,但环顾选后的政治地图,除去佛罗里达等“摇摆州”的确“摇摆”了之外,东西海岸的传统民主党控制区和中部的传统共和党控制区大都没出现理念的偏差。
特朗普阵营在本次风波中遭遇“跛脚”的局面早就成了定局,其差异只在较之此前丢失多少席次的层面上。相对于早就预料到的政治版图变化,受本年度中美贸易战影响而出现的政治格局调整就因此更引人注意。
这其中首当其冲的莫过于因中美贸易战第一批340亿美元报复清单,导致其大豆生意受影响的十个农业州,即伊利诺伊、艾奥瓦、明尼苏达、内布拉斯加、印地安纳、密苏里、俄亥俄、北达科塔、南达科他、阿肯色和堪萨斯

和2016年一样,美国中西部的贫困地区仍然是特朗普的基本盘,但这一区域也在发生动摇
不可否认,不同于中文媒体对于“中美贸易战影响美国经济”一厢情愿的想象。不少美国中部的农业州仍然支持特朗普。但南达科他、北达科他等地对特朗普不满的“民意”并不能继续确保共和党阵营在这些地区的稳定。
此外,特朗普对伊利诺伊等地煤钢产业的扶植也间接冲淡了中美贸易战的大豆交易的负面作用。
譬如在伊利诺伊南部的第12选区,依靠重开高炉和支持特朗普加征钢、铝关税的行动,该选区的共和党众议员博斯特(Mike Bost)就再次胜选。但当地的民主党挑战者还是已经拿到了当地“钢铁工人工会”和农民等团体的支持。 美国农户还担心,贸易战持续的时间越长,中国找到其他长期供货方的可能性就越大。这就让特朗普的政治环境难以轻易稳定。
贸易战的影响还没扩大
从某种意义上来说,真正在中美贸易战中受到影响,并对共和党阵营造成直接打击的美国农业州可能不多,伊利诺伊、艾奥瓦、明尼苏达和堪萨斯等地的众院席次因此发生了7席的变更,真正因贸易战波及而造成政治环境大变的只有艾奥瓦一地。
考虑到这些区域在特朗普政治版图中的位置,以及艾奥瓦一地在中美贸易战中的标杆作用:该州政府当局曾在7月公开表示“已经感受到了关税带来的冲击”。这就仍让艾奥瓦一地政治环境的变更在贸易战逐渐加剧的前提下起到最直观的作用。
毕竟,考虑到农产品的生产周期,以及中国是到7月6日开始才对包括大豆、玉米、小麦、大米、高粱、牛肉、猪肉、家禽、鱼、奶制品、坚果和蔬菜在内的价值340亿美元的美国商品加征25%的关税,这就意味着美国的农业州目前真正损失较大的仍只集中在大豆等领域。不过,贸易争端的冲击还是会降临到所有美国农业资本家的头上。
面对这种威胁,美国乳制品出口协会主席、前农业部长维尔萨克(Tom Vilsack)在接受《金融时报》采访时的发言就颇能反映美国农业界及其他相关产业界人士的心态。维尔萨克认为,美国农业界并不特别在意特朗普在贸易战等问题上的处理方式,美国人支持“爱国”行为,但比起“爱国”,农业能否获利,“能否生存”才更为重要。

面对特朗普正在破坏中美贸易的现状,此前相信“自己的领导人”的美国农业资本家们终于有了些怀疑的想法
特朗普阵营可能也注意到了这种情绪的变化,因为共和党阵营中不乏农业资本家,譬如密苏里州共和党议员哈茨勒(Vicky Hartzler)等人都是“豆农”代表。这些人曾向特朗普建言,强调相信“自己的领导人”,称“农民受伤了。他们需要更多的贸易,而不是关税”。这使得特朗普在10月中下旬释放出“中美在贸易争端上仍有对话空间”的信息,借此尝试安抚受贸易战打击的选民。
无独有偶,特朗普麾下的国务卿蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo)也在接受美国媒体采访时多次强调,称“对中国施加贸易关税,不仅对科技公司有利,亦对美国农业和工业有益”,同时也符合“美国的中心地带,像印地安纳州和堪萨斯州”人们的利益。可当特朗普阵营曾经关注、点名的农业州还是发生了人心的变化时,仍未结束的中美贸易战对美国的影响就因此将变得更为微妙起来。
有分析认为,环顾北京此前加征25%和20%的关税清单,外界可以发现包括牛羊肉、咖啡、浆果、蜂蜜在内的已经确认的针对特朗普“票仓”产业的打击:这些已经在中期选举中得到了初步体系。当北京未来展开对计算机、纤维、纺织、化工等产品的行动时,美国其他科研、制造、 机械产品受影响的地区也会进一步发生包括政治光谱领域上的变化。 …转自多维新闻网

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